All of us have a little voice inside of our heads that asks us, “Why would you not just pick Justify to win?” To answer that little voice: masochism. Plus, that is what the racing predictive model suggests.
Justify won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness on incredibly sloppy tracks. With the model adjusted to account for rain during the Belmont, he is the clear favorite. As it stands right now, this Saturday’s Belmont Stakes is shaping up to be nothing more than a cloudy day. This brings Hofburg just ahead of the potential 13th Triple Crown winner.
Hofburg’s sire is Tapit whose offspring include three of the past four Belmont winners, with the fourth finishing second behind American Pharoah in 2015. Justify will be racing for the sixth time since February on the longest track of his brief racing career. The stage is set for an upset. However, Justify has beaten the predictive model twice before. He could be a horse special enough to win the Triple Crown.
The racing predictive model accounts for variables such as post number, morning odds, weather, past performances, and expert picks to predict the place in which each horse will finish.
Regardless of the outcome, these races have been an absolute blast to watch. I will be rooting for Hofburg as well as Justify. The possibility of seeing another Triple Crown is just too exciting. After all, I’ve got this little voice asking, “Who doesn’t want to witness history?”.